Lunedi’ 10 si e’ tenuta presso il Center for Strategic & International Studies una conferenza sugli scenari post referendari in Sudan. Secondo Fouad Hikmat, African Union and Sudan Special Advisor at International Crisis Group, la chiave di volta per capire come si evolvera’ il futuro del Sudan dopo le elezioni, e’ nelle mani degli islamici.
“Intense efforts are under way in the South to ensure that the referendum takes place on time and is conducted in a way that fairly represents the will of the people. The vote will be open to those who can prove they are southern Sudanese or have family links to the South. This includes many southerners who live in the North. The governing party in the South, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), is watching this constituency carefully, concerned about their voting intentions and fearful that they might be intimidated by the North. Nonetheless, all the indications suggest that a free vote would result in a resounding decision in favor of independence. For southerners, the referendum is the culmination of many decades of struggle against northern oppression, on political, racial, ethnic, and religious grounds—a struggle that has cost more than 2 million lives. Now that the prize is within reach, any perceived attempt by the North to snatch it away will be viewed as a declaration of war. The process of organizing the main referendum remains on track, but only just. The logistical challenges are formidable, and any small hiccup could set the plans off course. Southern Sudan is one of the most undeveloped regions of the world. Roughly the size of France, it has just a few miles of paved road. An estimated 85 percent of the population is illiterate, and voter education is minimal. Ethnic divisions lie just below the surface in the South, and rivals will be quick to manipulate them for political advantage. As a result, the most likely outcome remains an on-time referendum, which in all probability will be flawed and chaotic and provide an opening for Khartoum to reject the outcome. A contested referendum result would be a worst-case scenario for the South, forcing it to consider risking a unilateral declaration of independence (UDI). A UDI would place international recognition in jeopardy and most likely lead to war with the North.”
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